By Reid Wilson, Real Clear Politics - October 29, 2007

With eight days to go until Election Day, governor's races in Mississippi and Kentucky are all but over, and with the presidential campaign sucking most of the oxygen from the room and the Louisiana governor's race already decided, 2007 looks to be a year that provides few strong electoral story lines. But with a host of top-tier races and the possibility that control of the State Senate could flip - an eventuality with ramifications far beyond the state's borders - those story lines will come out of Virginia. And that is more bad news for the Republican Party.

Throughout the country, few states have depressed Republicans more than Virginia in recent years. The GOP has lost a Senate seat and two consecutive gubernatorial elections; it appears likely Democrats will take the other Senate seat next year. For the GOP, the one bright spot has been a state legislature firmly in their control.

This year, many believe Republicans' 14-seat lead in the House of Delegates is safe, though Democrats are likely to pick up a few seats there. But with a narrow six-seat majority in the state Senate, plus a Republican Lieutenant Governor, many in the Virginia GOP are worried their eight years of control could come to an end. Democrats would need to pick up just four out of forty seats, and the party has honed in on six races they think can win back the majority.

Republicans have felt a backlash after helping Governor Tim Kaine pass a regional transportation plan that raised some taxes, which depressed and frustrated the GOP base. "Democrats, who really had nothing to run on this year, have a whole lot of voter discontent [after the tax plan passed] to ride on," said independent consultant Brian Kirwin.

That anger led to the defeat of State Sen. Marty Williams, who chaired the Senate Transportation Committee, in a primary in June, by 750 votes to Tricia Stall, who Democrats see as far more conservative than Williams.

But the negative atmosphere the GOP faces isn't completely its own fault. After winning the governor's mansion twice and George Allen's Senate seat, Democrats look poised to win the state's other Senate seat in 2008. "For the first time in several years, there's a sense that they could make this happen," said Tom Lehner, who served as chief of staff to former Democratic Sen. Chuck Robb. That sense of momentum is driving millions into Democratic coffers, leveling a playing field that had been unequal for years.

Democrats are able to seriously contest so many races, observers said, because of their recent wins, and thanks to active participation from Warner, who is running for Senate next year, and Kaine. "If the governor chooses to exert himself, he can pump two, three, four million dollars into campaigns," Republican lobbyist Boyd Marcus said.

That money translates into a more active campaign than in recent years. In one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities, State Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, of Vienna, and her opponent, Democrat Chap Petersen, have raised more than $1.75 million combined, through September 30. The two are so well-financed that they are running campaign ads in the expensive Washington media market, in prime time, on network television.

"There's a lot of visibility in state legislative races, much more so than in years past," said Lehner, who expressed surprise that any state legislative candidate could afford D.C. airtime.

Perhaps the biggest factor helping Democrats this year is the change taking place in the Virginia electorate. The party is counting on its continued success in the northern part of the state, surrounding Washington, D.C., areas which have provided Democrats new strongholds in recent years. Without winning the booming suburbs by wide margins, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine would never have won the governor's seat, and Jim Webb would not be in the Senate.

This year, four targeted seats - those of Devolites Davis, Sen. Ken Cuccinelli, of Centreville, Sen. Jay O'Brien, in southern Fairfax County, and an open seat stretching from Loudon County to the West Virginia border - are inside or close to the Beltway.

Democrats have also targeted Sen. Nick Rerras, in Norfolk and Virginia Beach, where a wealthy doctor has helped his campaign outraise the incumbent by nearly $200,000, and an open seat in Hampton and Newport News, where Stall beat Williams earlier this year.

In short, the party has been able to control the playing field, strategists on both sides agree, depriving Republicans of the ability to target races of their own. "The whole game's being played on our side of the field," complained Marcus.

The changing demographics and the minority's push to regain majority status are drawing the attention of national political strategists as well. Both the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and the Republican State Leadership Committee, which handle state legislative elections for their parties, see Virginia as important to their party's future in Congress: This year marks the last Senate elections before legislators take up redistricting, after the 2010 census. With Democrats in charge of one chamber, some strategists smell the possibility of a several-seat pickup in the state's Congressional delegation.

Already, Republican Reps. Tom Davis and Frank Wolf face districts changing beneath their feet. With the addition of a few more Democratic precincts to their districts, Democrats hope the two Northern Virginia members will be the last Republicans to hold those seats.

For the DLCC, which has increasingly spent time and energy crafting plans surrounding the 2010 redistricting, that's an incentive attractive enough to drive focus this year. "Virginia is the bulk of our energies right now," said DLCC chief Michael Sargeant.

The state's elections, next Tuesday, will be some of the most closely watched by top political observers and party strategists. At the end of the night, thanks to three factors - frustrated Republicans, motivated Democrats and a new, changing electorate - the question is not whether Republicans will lose seats, said GOP lobbyist Marcus. "The question is how many."

Reid Wilson is an associate editor and writer for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at reid@realclearpolitics.com